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88 that the probability of recession could double between 2019 and 2020, the report said. "e potential for an economic down- turn has been highly discussed over the past few months as more signals of a recession come into alignment," said Holly Tacho- vsky, CEO, BuildFax. "While this is only the second consecutive month of declining indicators, this shift is in stark contrast to the white-hot housing market that the U.S. has experienced since 2013." According to the report, single-family housing authorizations are among the earliest and most predictive indicators of a recession and can provide a leading indicator of the health of the economy. Looking at histori- cal data, the report found that U.S. housing authorization activity had one of the highest correlations with each economic downturn between 1961 and 2018. "Under current conditions, we anticipate single-family housing authorizations to be a must-watch indicator in 2019 and as we move into 2020. However, more than a few critical economic factors must align before a reces- sion is imminent," said Jonathan Kanarek, COO of BuildFax. Will Texas Adopt Flood Insurance Disclosure Laws? e Texas Department of Insurance (TDI) has recommended adopting laws requiring that property insurance policies include a disclosure that the policy does not cover flood damage. e agency proposed this step in its biennial report to the state legislature. e issue at the core of this proposal is the rule that property within the Federal Emer- gency Management Agency (FEMA) 100- year flood plain must have flood insurance to get a federally backed mortgage. TDI, in its report, said that during Hurricane Harvey, more than half the homes that were flooded were outside of these designated flood zones and most of those didn't have flood insur- ance. Another issue was the awareness among homeowners on this rule. TDI noted that some homeowners outside the flood zones and even renters in the flood zones were not aware that they might need flood insurance. e need for such a rule, TDI stated became even more important in the light of the fact that the state was "particularly prone to floods and almost every major city in Texas and we relentlessly look for purpose-filled, growth-minded mortgage professionals who want to make a meaningful difference in their industry and communities. We found all of those qualities and more in the team at Eagle Home Mortgage," said Casey Crawford, CEO of Movement Mortgage. "I'm excited and honored to welcome these talented individuals to Movement." Eagle Home Mortgage's assets are concentrated in the Pacific Northwest and Mountain West regions, including offices and operations in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado. Movement expects to retain staff across the acquired branch network and integrate the business with its existing retail network of more than 650 branches and 1,500 loan of- ficers nationwide. "Movement provides our loan officers and support teams with the industry's best pro- cess and service, innovative technology and a culture that emphasizes caring for customers, teammates, and communities," said Kisha Weir, SVP, Eagle Home Mortgage. Movement kicked off the acquisition an- nouncement with a four-day roadshow across four states, as executive sales and operations leadership visited Eagle associates in Seattle, Washington; Portland, Oregon; Boise, Idaho; and Denver, Colorado. TEXAS What Is Affecting the Health of Housing? Single-family housing authorizations, maintenance, and remodeling volumes have decreased, according to Austin-based Build- Fax in their Housing Health Report that found declines in all three categories for the second consecutive month in December. While single-family housing authoriza- tions decreased by 3.76 percent year over year, maintenance volumes for existing homes declined 10.71 percent over the same period. e remodel volume of existing homes also dipped by 15.64 percent year over year, ac- cording to the report. However, in a nod to 2018's high material and labor costs remodel spend, a consistently volatile subsection, increased 5.97 percent in December. ese higher costs resulted from increased tariffs and the effects of recent natural disasters, the report indicated. If the current trend of declines across these three categories persists, the report noted had areas that were at high risk of flood- ing." Additionally, since development could change an area's flood risk, it was difficult to keep the flood maps developed by FEMA up to date. As a result, TDI has recommended amending the state's Insurance Code to re- quire property policies to include a prominent disclosure if the property does not cover flood damage. TDI recommended two alternatives to achieve this: » Requiring TDI to adopt rules for such disclosure; or » Providing specific language in the statute for the disclosure Currently, six states have a similar law in place—Florida, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, and Washington. Floods after Hurricane Harvey not only impacted properties but also homeowners' ability to pay. In a case study conducted in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in Texas, CoreLogic found that FEMA designated counties following Hurricane Harvey saw a significant increase in 90-plus day delin- quency when compared to delinquency rates just six months prior. In these counties, properties estimated to be damaged saw a 205 percent increase in 90-plus day delinquency, and undamaged properties saw a 167 percent increase in 90-plus day delinquency. According to IPX1031—a Fidelity National Financial company focused on tax-deferred exchanges—nine Texas cities are within the top 50 markets for buying an Airbnb investment property. Pasadena leads the way with an average property income of $29,988, followed by Grand Prairie, Arlington, Fort Worth, Lubbock, San Antonio, El Paso, Dallas, and Amarillo. KNOW THIS

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