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» VISIT US ONLINE @ DSNEWS.COM 31 millennials, and the concrete effects have made it much more difficult for millennials to get their foot in the door even if they want to become homeowners. On the inventory side, homebuilders are also impacted by these effects, causing a deficit in inventory built over the last seven years of the recovery. Builders got burned with an overhang of too much inventory in the previous up-cycle and have therefore been cautious in ramping up their production in this time, especially in light of the muted demand for homeownership from millennials and other generations. Additionally, the housing crash decimated the ranks of construction workers, and many in that field have since found other jobs. at has pushed up construction costs and limited the type of inventory that is profitable for builders. With the housing market witnessing low mortgage rates and better inventory this spring, how do you see the market continuing to evolve this year? e buyer- seller pendulum swung back toward buyers in the second half of 2018, but it's hard to tell if that swing is continuing or if the recent drop in mortgage rates will halt it. We saw a similar swing toward a buyer's market play out in 2014 when mortgage rates also rose above 4% for an extended stretch. When mortgage rates then dropped, the market quickly flipped right back in favor of sellers in 2015. However, I don't think we'll see such a knee-jerk response toward a seller's market this time around. e market will still be more favorable for buyers in 2019 than it was in 2017, but I also don't think we'll see a full-fledged buyer's market where homes are sitting on the market for six months or more in most areas of the country. Do you see a recession on the horizon in the near-term? ere is a good chance of at least a mild to medium-sized recession in the next couple years. Housing certainly will be impacted to some degree, but it will not likely be the catalyst for the recession nor bear the brunt of the pain from it. Looking back at previous recessions, the typical impact on housing is a modest drop in home prices—somewhere in the range of a 1% to 5% drop depending on the local market, not the 30% to 50% drop we saw trig- gered by the Great Recession. Delivering news you need. When you need it. Sign up for new alerts each morning to get the industry's top stories delivered direct to your inbox. Register for the Daily Dose at DSNews.com F R E S H L E Y B R E W E D , E V E R Y M O R N I N G R E G I S T E R F O R T H E D A I L Y D O S E A T D S N E W S . C O M GET YOUR MORNING PICK-ME-UP