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DS News December 2019

DSNews delivers stories, ideas, links, companies, people, events, and videos impacting the mortgage default servicing industry.

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76 NATIONAL SNAPSHOT Regional SHIFTING ECONOMIC TIDES Four of the five states with increases in delinquency rates according to a new report also had increases in unemployment rates. In August 2019, 3.7% of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency, down from 3.9% a year earlier and the lowest for the month of August in more than 20 years, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report. e measure, also known as the overall delinquency rate, includes all home loans 30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure. For the month of August historically, the share of delinquent mortgages peaked in 2010 at 11.1%. Since March 2018, the overall delinquency rate each month has been lower than during the pre-crisis period of 2000 through 2006, when the rate averaged 4.7%. e serious delinquency rate—defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclo- sure—was 1.3% in August 2019, down from 1.5% in August 2018. e serious delinquency rate for this August was below the average of 1.5% for the 2000–2006 pre-crisis period and far below the peak of 7.5% in February 2010. e foreclosure inventory rate—the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process—was 0.4% in August 2019, down from 0.5% a year earlier. August's foreclosure rate was the lowest for that month in at least 20 years and was below the average pre-crisis level of 0.6%. Ris- ing home prices have led to record amounts of home equity, reducing the risk of foreclosure. e share of mortgages that were 30–59 days past due—considered early-stage delinquencies—was 1.8% in August 2019, unchanged from August 2018. e share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.6% in August 2019, also unchanged from August 2018. In addition to delinquency rates, CoreLogic tracks the rate at which mortgages transition from one stage of delinquency to the next, such as going from current to 30 days past due. Figure 1 shows that in August 2019 the current- to 30-day transition rate remained well below levels during the housing crisis. e August current- to 30-day rate was 0.8%, unchanged from a year earlier. e 30- to 60-day transition rate was 16.1% in August, up from 14.9% in August 2018, and the 60- to 90-day transition rate was 25.8% in August, up from 24.6% a year earlier. Figure 2 shows the states with the highest and lowest share of mortgages 30 days or more delinquent. In August 2019, that rate was highest in Mississippi at 7.3% and lowest in Colorado at 1.7%. Five states logged an annual gain in their overall delinquency rate in August 2019. Iowa saw an increase of 0.2 percentage points, and Min- nesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Rhode Island all posted an increase of 0.1 percentage points. e rise in overall delinquency in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin coincided with a rise in the state unemployment rate during the twelve months through August 2019. Figure 3 shows the 30-plus-day past-due rate for August 2019 for 10 large metropolitan areas. e New York metro had the highest rate at 5.1%. Miami, with the second-highest rate at 5%, saw a sharp decrease in the overall delinquency rate, falling from 5.9% in August 2018. Houston also saw a large year-over-year decrease, from 5.3% in August 2018 to 4.7% in August 2019. San Francisco had the lowest 30-plus-day delinquency rate in August 2019 at 1.2%. STATS AT A GLANCE The nation's overall delinquency rate was 3.7% in August. The foreclosure inventory rate for August was 0.4%, where it has stood since November 2018.

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