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MortgagePoint ยป Your Trusted Source for Mortgage Banking and Servicing News 56 W e are well into 2024, and the housing market remains the same rollercoaster ride to start the new year as it was when 2023 concluded. In order to get a grip on what lies ahead in the housing finance space, MortgagePoint recently had the opportu- nity to chat with two of the industry's top forecasters, Fannie Mae's SVP and Chief Economist Douglas G. Duncan, and VP and Deputy Chief Economist Mark Palim. Note that this interview was conducted just hours prior to the Federal Reserve's January FOMC where rates were held steady. As SVP and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, Duncan is responsible for forecasts and analyses of the economy and the housing and mortgage markets. He also oversees strategic research regard- ing the potential impact of external factors on the housing industry. Named one of Bloomberg/BusinessWeek's "50 Most Pow- erful People in Real Estate," Duncan is Fannie Mae's source for information and analyses on demographics and the exter- nal business and economic environment; the implications of changes in economic activity on the company's strategy and execution; and for forecasting overall housing, economic, and mortgage market activity. Prior to joining Fannie Mae, Duncan was SVP and Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). His experience also includes work on the Financial Institutions Project at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and service as a LEGIS Fellow and staff member with the Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs for Congressman Bill McCollum in the U.S. House of Represen- tatives. Previously, Duncan was a Board member of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) and a Board Member and Chair of Strategies to Elevate People (STEP). In his role as Fannie Mae's VP and Deputy Chief Economist, Palim focuses on the impact of trends in the financial services sector on the economy and on the government-sponsored enterprise (GSE). Prior to joining Fannie Mae in 2009, Palim worked as a Senior Associate, Manager, and Director for PricewaterhouseCoopers, and served as Principal at LECG. He has been a consulting and testifying expert in antitrust cases and disputes in the financial services industry. Palim was first involved with economic forecasting and mortgage securities in 1988, when he was a Portfolio Manager and also reported to the Chief Economist at Mercantile Safe Deposit and Trust Company. Subsequent- ly, he continued his work on macro- economic and policy issues as a staff economist for the National Association of Federal Credit Unions (NAFCU). EDITOR'S NOTE: This Q&A took place Wednesday, January 31, 2024, and reflects the views of Doug Duncan and Mark Palim as of that date. Q: What are the top factors you believe will define the housing market in 2024? Douglas G. Duncan: We don't expect the Federal Reserve to announce a rate change today. They will signal some things on what's an ample level of portfolio for them to provide liquidity going forward. They may provide some indication of what they think the direction of growth will be, and how that may impact the way that they consider future rates. If we have a slow growth forecast on the economy for 2024, we think the fed will likely cut rates four times this year, starting in May, and that would bring interest rates down. When they have said in the past, "high- er for longer," one of the aspects of that we have thought about is that it can also mean the pace at which they lower rates, and the degree to which they lower rates may be slower and less than in previous easing cycles. It really depends on how the economy performs going forward. Housing will obviously be impacted by the growth of the economy, and our FINDING THE WAY The nation's housing market is looking for solid footing in 2024, as MortgagePoint sits down with Fannie Mae's Douglas G. Duncan and Mark Palim to discuss the factors that may shift the market in 2024 and beyond. B y E R I C C . P E C K E R I C C . P E C K has 25-plus years' experience covering the mortgage industry. He most recently served as Editor-in-Chief for The Mortgage Press and National Mortgage Professional Magazine. Peck graduated from the New York Institute of Technology where he received his B.A. in communication arts/media. After graduating, he began his professional career with Videography Magazine before landing in the mortgage space. Peck has edited three published books and has served as Copy Editor for entrepreneur.com. T H E P O I N T F e a t u r e d C o n v e r s a t i o n s W i t h M o r t g a g e ' s B e s t a n d B r i g h t e s t