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April 2024 » thefivestar.com 79 April 2024 J O U R N A L rates will decrease over the next 12 months. If their expectations come true and rates move closer to the 6% mark by the end of 2024, as we currently expect, then it's likely that consumer sentiment on both sides of the transaction will improve, perhaps leading to a further thawing of the housing market. A decline in mortgage rates—and the resulting uptick in sentiment—would bode well for the upcoming spring home- buying season, although affordability will likely remain a significant challenge for buyers, at least until there's a meaningful addition to net supply." The slight dip in rates and the arrival of spring may have combined to boost overall mortgage application volume over the previous week, as the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that mortgage applications increased by 9.7%, according to data from the MBA's Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 1, 2024. "A small decline in mortgage rates last week led to a nearly 10% jump in mortgage applications, with refinance and purchase activity both posting solid gains," MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit said. "Housing inventory remains tight and home prices are elevat- ed, but first-time buyer interest is strong this spring. FHA purchase applications jumped 16%." Home Purchase Sentiment Index– Component Highlights Fannie Mae's HPSI rose in February by 2.1 points to 72.8. The HPSI is up 14.8 points compared to the same time last year. Specifically, the HPSI found: » Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percent- age of respondents who say it is a "Good Time to Buy" a home increased from 17% to 19%, while the percent- age who say it is a "Bad Time to Buy" decreased from 83% to 81%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a "Good Time to Buy" increased four percentage points month over month. » Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percent- age of respondents who say it is a "Good Time to Sell" a home increased from 60% to 65%, while the percent- age who say it's a "Bad Time to Sell" decreased from 40% to 35%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a "Good Time to Sell" increased 11 percentage points month over month. » Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say "Home Prices Will Go Up" in the next 12 months increased from 37% to 42%, while the percentage who say "Home Prices Will Go Down" increased from 22% to 23%. The share who think "Home Prices Will Stay the Same" decreased from 40% to 34%. As a result, the net share of those who say "Home Prices Will Go Up" in the next 12 months increased four percentage points month over month. » Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say "Mortgage Rates Will Go Down" in the next 12 months decreased from 36% to 35%, while the percentage who "Expect Mortgage Rates to Go Up" increased from 28% to 32%. The share who think "Mortgage Rates Will Stay the Same" decreased from 35% to 32%. As a result, the net share of those who say "Mortgage Rates Will Go Down" over the next 12 months decreased five percentage points month over month. » Job Loss Concern: The percentage of respondents who say they are "Not Concerned About Losing Their Job" in the next 12 months decreased from 82% to 78%, while the percentage who say they are "Concerned About Losing Their Job" increased from 18% to 22%. As a result, the net share of those who say they are "Not Concerned About Losing Their Job" decreased eight per- centage points month over month. » Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their house- hold income is "Significantly Higher" than it was 12 months ago increased from 17% to 19%, while the percentage who say their household income is "Significantly Lower" decreased from 13% to 11%. The percentage who say their household income is "About the Same" increased from 69% to 70%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is "Signifi- cantly Higher" than it was 12 months ago increased five percentage points month over month.