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79 September 2024 J O U R N A L inflow to high-flood-risk areas last year. Here's the breakdown: » A total of 219,799 people moved into high-flood-risk U.S. counties, while 203,655 moved out, which is how Redfin got a net inflow of 16,144 in section one. » 117,574 of the 219,799—or 53.5%—were people who moved to Florida. All in all, high-flood-risk counties in Florida saw a net inflow of 68,564—contrib- uting significantly to the national net inflow. (The national net inflow is smaller than the Florida net inflow be- cause the Florida net inflow was partly offset by outflows in other areas.) » While Florida's impact on the na- tional figure is large, it has shrunk; Florida accounted for 53.5% of migra- tion to high-flood-risk areas in 2023, down from 57.3% in 2022. This could be because people are becoming more aware of flood risk and surging insurance costs. » Florida is home to six of the 10 high- flood-risk counties that saw the larg- est net inflows of people last year. All six are located on the Florida coast. Miami bucks the trend. Miami-Dade County, where 38.9% of homes face high flood risk, saw a net outflow of 47,597 people in 2023. That's a bigger outflow than almost any other county in the nation. Some people have left due to climate dangers, but many have been priced out due to the surge in housing costs during the pandemic. The median home sale price in the Miami metro area is $555,000, up almost 75% from $319,000 at this time in 2019. "Miami has gentrified. Many of the people who are selling their homes now are moving elsewhere because they can no longer afford to live here given the rise in interest rates, housing prices, insurance costs, and HOA fees for condo dwellers," said Rafael Corrales, a Redfin Premier Agent in Miami. "A lot of the buyers in the market are paying in cash, which allows them to forgo homeowners' insurance. That means they don't have to deal with skyrocketing premiums, but it also means they're on their own if a storm hits." Florida, along with California, is in the middle of a housing insurance crisis. Many homeowners have seen their premiums skyrocket, and some have lost coverage altogether because intensifying natural disaster risk has prompted many insurers to stop doing business in the two states. The good news is that homes being built in Florida today tend to be more resilient than older homes because they must ad- here to stricter, modern building codes. "Prospective homebuyers are asking me a lot more questions about natural di- sasters and insurance costs than they were previously. About three-quarters of the sellers I speak to express frustration over recent increases in their insurance premi- ums," Corrales added. "If you're looking to buy a home in Florida, you should know that you can't be close to the water without being in a flood zone. If you're within three miles of the coastline, Mother Nature is going to pay you a visit. That's the price you pay for living in paradise." A Golden State Exodus While fire-prone America saw more people move in than leave in 2023, there were still a lot of people who left, and many of them left California: » A total of 34,170 people left high-fire- risk U.S. counties last year. » 17,357 of those people—or 50.8%—left California. That's up from 41.9% in 2022, which may signal that people in the Golden State have grown more responsive to fire risk. » Overall, California's high-fire-risk areas saw a net outflow of 6,937 people in 2023. That marks a reversal from 2022. California is home to five of the 10 high-fire-risk counties that saw the largest net outflows in 2023. Two of those counties are in and around Napa, which has sustained significant wildfire damage in recent years, and another is north of Lake Tahoe, which has also been hit by wildfires. The remaining two are on the coast—one is next to Santa Barbara and one includes the city of Santa Cruz. Many of these counties also have high home prices, which may be pushing some people out of the area. "We live between the ocean and the bay, with the beautiful coastal mountains between, which means we have high fire risk, flood risk, and always the potential for an earthquake," said Julie Zubiate, a Redfin Premier Agent in the Bay Area. "I recently had a condo almost fall out of contract because Fannie Mae switched my client from approved to unapproved while under escrow. Fannie Mae decided the home's HOA wasn't protected enough from climate disasters. It took a while, but we found a lender willing to take on the risk—but at a higher cost to my clients."