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79 January 2025 J O U R N A L January 2025 » home prices will stay the same decreased from 38% to 36%. As a re- sult, the net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased five percentage points month over month to 12%. • Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months increased from 39% to 45%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from 22% to 25%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from 38% to 29%. As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased four percentage points month over month to 20%. • Job Loss Concern: The percentage of employed respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from 79% to 78%, while the percentage who say they are concerned remained unchanged at 20%. As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job remained unchanged month over month at 58%. • Household Income: The percent- age of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from 18% to 16%, while the percentage who say their house- hold income is significantly lower increased from 11% to 12%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from 70% to 71%. As a result, the net share of those who say their house- hold income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased one percentage point month over month to 5%. "Fortunately, a sharply growing share of consumers say they expect their personal financial situation to improve over the next year," Palim con- tinued. "Additionally, more consumers expect home price growth to slow, a belief recently shared by our expert panelists, as well, which may help ease some of the affordability burden and incentivize some households, espe- cially those who have been waiting in the wings, to finally act on their home purchase decision." EMPTY NESTS: WHAT IMPACT IS AGING IN PLACE HAVING ON U.S. HOUSING SUPPLY? T he nation's housing deficit has long been thought to be allevi- ated by a "silver tsunami"—an anticipated influx of properties from elderly owners who will downsize or oth- erwise move on. However, recent Zillow research indicates that these properties are probably positioned far from the areas where they are most needed. "Even if we did see a 'silver tsunami,' a look at the map tells me it wouldn't really move the needle in terms of solving our housing afford- ability crunch," said Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow. "These empty-nest households are concentrat- ed in more affordable markets, where housing is already more accessible— not in the expensive coastal job centers where young workers are moving and where more homes are most desperate- ly needed." There were about 20.9 million empty-nest households in the country in 2022. These households were made up of people 55 and older who had been living on the same property for ten years or more, had no children living there, and had at least two spare bed- rooms. In contrast, 8.1 million families in 2022 lived with non-relatives, who probably needed a dwelling of their own. However, the map shows a mis- match between supply and demand. Households with empty nests are typically found in less-priced markets. Pittsburgh had the greatest percent- age of empty-nest households (22%), followed by Buffalo, New York (20%), Cleveland (20%), Detroit (19%), St. Louis (19%), and New Orleans (18%) among the 50 largest U.S. metro areas. These markets are already reachable; all but New Orleans are in the top ten for the number of reasonably priced homes available. Additionally, the percentage of household heads under 44 is compar- atively low. People of "Homebuying Age" Live Farther From Empty-Nest Households However, urban areas with some of the highest concentrations of Gen Zers and millennials are also some of the costliest in the country. San Jose (35%), Austin (32%), and Denver (32%) are the markets with the highest percentages of newly relocated households with mem- bers aged 44 and under. Portland and Seattle, both with 30%, are in the top 10. All of these metro areas have a lower percentage of empty-nest households than the national average, and housing affordability is far more difficult to find there than it is nationwide. Therefore, in pricey, high-demand coastal locations, the effect of a future rise in supply originating from the current stock of older-owned houses will probably have less of an inf luence on affordability. Instead, a robust supply expansion from newly constructed homes contin- ues to be the major solution to afford- ability issues. According to Zillow data, markets with more land-use restric- tions experienced the worst housing shortages. Removing obstacles to homeown- ership that aren't connected to monthly income, like credit aid programs, down payment assistance, or closing cost assistance, could potentially increase access to homeownership in addition to encouraging denser construction.