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MortgagePoint » Your Trusted Source for Mortgage Banking and Servicing News 64 February 2025 J O U R N A L Market Trends EXAMINING 2024 HOME PRICE TRENDS A ccording to the October 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, issued by the S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI), the leading indicator of U.S. home val- ues had an annual growth of 3.6%—a modest decrease from the previous 2024 annual gains. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, also commented on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index's release and had this to say: "The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed that home prices rose again in October. Prices have risen every month in 2024, even as mortgage rates have remained stub- bornly high and as housing affordabili- ty has reached an all-time low." Measuring Year-Over-Year Gains, Cities With the Highest Growth The U.S. National Home Price Case-Shiller for the S&P CoreLogic following a 3.9% annual rise the month before, the NSA Index, which includes all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 3.6% annual return for October. "The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index picked up slightly in October, recording a 3.6% year-over-year gain in the prices of homes in the U.S.," said Joel Berner, Senior Economist at Realtor.com. "This is a bit below last month's mark of 3.9% growth and comes in as the 7th consecutive month in which year-over-year gains have fallen. With that being said, the index also reached a new record high for the 17th month in a row. Home price appre- ciation seems to be settling into a more comfortable pace, just as inventory levels pick up going into 2025: wel- come news for prospective buyers who continue to face the headwinds of high mortgage rates. The 10- and 20-City Composites behaved similarly to the national index, with the 10-City posting 4.8% year-over-year growth (down from 5.2% in the previous month) and the 20-City coming in at 4.2% (4.6% last month)." Following a 5.2% annual increase the month before, the 10-City Compos- ite showed an annual increase of 4.8%. After rising 4.6% the month before, the 20-City Composite saw a 4.2% year-over-year increase. With a 7.3% increase in October, New York once again had the largest annual gain out of the 20 cities. Chicago and Las Vegas came in second and third, with annual increases of 6.2% and 5.9%, respective- ly. Tampa's 0.4% year-over-year growth was the lowest. "There are signs that these pres- sures might be starting to have an effect on home price appreciation," Sturtevant said. "In October, the Case-Shiller index rose 3.6% year over year, the lowest since August 2023. And while home prices continued to climb in all metros, the index shows weakening price appreciation in most regions. Home prices rose by less than 1% year over year in Tampa, Dallas, and Denver, places where prices rose fast during the pandemic and inventory is climbing. Other measures of home prices (e.g. Zillow's Home Value Index) have also shown that in some metros, home prices have started to fall on an annual basis." Sturtevant continued: "We are unlikely to see widespread home price declines in 2025, but there are some metros where fast-rising inventory and cooling demand will lead to falling prices in the year ahead. Our forecasts suggest that markets in Florida are at most risk of price declines in 2025. Other markets that surged during the pandemic, including metros in Utah and Colorado, are also poised for much cooler conditions in 2025." Examining Month-Over-Month Home Price Trends October saw a turn in trends of the pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index, 20-City Composite, and 10-City Composite increasing trends. The national index saw a decline of -0.2%, while the 20-City and 10-City Compos- ites showed returns of -0.2% and -0.1%, respectively. "Home price appreciation varies significantly across the country," Berner said. "In the South and West