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63 May 2025 J O U R N A L May 2025 » CRE VOLUME ON THE REBOUND? A ccording to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) 2024 Commercial Real Estate/ Multifamily Finance Annual Origination Volume Summation, total commercial real estate (CRE) mortgage borrowing and lending is estimated to have totaled $498 billion in 2024, a 16% increase from the $429 billion in 2023, and a 39% decrease from $816 billion in 2022. MBA's survey tracked $411 billion of loans closed by dedicated commer- cial mortgage bankers in 2024—a 34% increase from the $306 billion reported in 2023. Activity from smaller and mid- sized depositories is estimated from other data sources to arrive at the $498 billion estimate for the total market. "Commercial real estate lending rebounded to $498 billion in 2024, up 16% from the prior year, and driven largely by multifamily activity and continued strength from dedicated mortgage banking firms, which closed $411 billion in loans," said Reggie Booker, MBA's Associate VP of Commercial Real Estate Research. "While still below 2021's record originations activity, the market showed renewed momentum. With an estimated $957 billion in CRE mortgage maturities coming due this year, demand for refinancing and new capital will be key drivers of market activity." Among different property types, mul- tifamily properties saw the highest volume last year, with an estimated $326 billion of total lending and $219 billion directly tracked by dedicated mortgage bankers. First liens accounted for 92% of the mort- gage bankers' dollar volume closed. Dedicated mortgage banking firms reported closing $411 billion of CRE loans in their own names and serving as intermediaries on $303 billion. Firms reported serving as investment sales brokers for $247 billion of deals. Depositories were the leading capital source for CRE mortgage debt, followed by life insurance companies and pension funds, private label CMBS, govern- ment-sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), and investor-driven lenders. The CBRE Lending Momentum In- dex, which tracks the pace of CBRE-orig- inated commercial loan closings in the United States, rose by 21% from Q3 2024 and 37% year over year, reflecting a strong recovery in lending activity. Commercial real estate lending momentum accelerat- ed in the fourth quarter of 2024, support- ed by a substantial wall of capital and strong fundamentals across most sectors, with maturing debt expected to drive further improvement in 2025, according to the latest research from CBRE. In Q4 2024, the average spread on closed commercial mortgage loans was 184 basis points (bps), representing a 49 bps decline year over year and a one bps increase from Q3 2024. Spreads on multifamily loans narrowed by 12 bps during the quarter to 156 bps, mark- ing the tightest spreads since Q1 2022, primarily due to compression in agency loan spreads. "While there was an uptick in mar- ket activity in the fourth quarter, the 80 bps shift in 10-year Treasury rates and revised rate expectations, led to recali- brations in credit and equity, resulting in the deferral of some deals. Despite this, a substantial wall of capital con- tinues to support competitive spreads across a wide spectrum of credit mar- kets, from CMBS SASB and Conduit to