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71 October 2025 J O U R N A L themortgagepoint.com October 2025 » Fed may cut rates more than expected, but the catch is that a slowing economy could push the U.S. into a recession." Note: Redfin uses MLS data on active listings and pending sales, as well as pro- prietary data on the average time between a buyer's first tour and the closing of the deal, to estimate the number of purchas- ers. Simply put, the number of active listings in the MLS indicates the projected number of sellers in the market. Accord- ing to Redfin, a market is considered a buyer's market if there are more than 10% more sellers than buyers, and a seller's market if there are more than 10% fewer sellers than buyers. U.S. Housing Market Lost Roughly 50K Sellers Since May As of the week prior to the release of the report, the average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate was 6.26%, the lowest level in almost a year. A critical mass of homebuyers may return to the market if mortgage rates fall below 6%, according to Redfin agents. Mortgage rates had factored in the Federal Reserve's decrease to its benchmark interest rate. As of right now, markets expect two more 25 basis point cuts this year. As market players await further economic data, especially the next jobs report on October 3, Redfin experts predict that mortgage rates will stay stable in the near future. Although there are still more sellers than buyers, sellers have begun to back off in response to the homebuyers' retreat. August saw the lowest number of house sellers since January, with an estimated 1.94 million. That is a decrease from the May peak of 1.99 million. To put it another way, within the last three months, the property market has lost almost 50,000 sellers. Since these data are seasonally corrected, this does not represent a sea- sonal movement. Some sellers are choosing not to list at all after witnessing their neighbor's property sell for less than the asking price, while others are delisting after seeing their properties linger on the market for months with no nibbles from bidders. In terms of regional trends, in August, there were an estimated 8,746 homebuy- ers and 21,230 home sellers in Miami. This indicates that there were 143% more sell- ers than purchasers, which is the biggest disparity among the 50 most populated cities in the United States. Fort Lauder- dale, Florida (128%), West Palm Beach, Florida (116%), Austin, Texas (131% more sellers than buyers), and San Antonio (111%) followed. Five of the 50 most populated metro areas were seller's markets, twelve were bal- anced markets, and 33 were buyer's markets overall. While balanced and seller's markets lean more toward the Midwest and East Coast, buyer's markets are concentrated in the Sun Belt and on the West Coast. "Housing inventory has surged in Florida, and as a result, buyers have be- come more selective," said John Tomlin- son, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Fort Lauderdale. "With so many options, it doesn't take much for buyers to back out of deals. Last year, if issues like faulty AC or an outdated roof came up during an inspection, buyers would say, 'OK, we'll work with it.' Now they'll just walk away." During the epidemic, the Sun Belt had a sharp increase in population as a large number of homebuyers from more affluent regions of the nation relocated there, pushing up house prices and forc- ing many residents out of the market. One reason why there are currently far more homes for sale than there are buyers is that homebuilders increased their opera- tions to match the soaring demand. More homes are still being built in Florida and Texas than in any other state. Some homeowners have left Flor- ida as a result of the state's worsening natural disasters, skyrocketing insur- ance costs, and growing condo HOA dues. Also in August, the average annual increase in home prices in the 33 buyer's markets was 1.8%, while the five seller's markets saw a 6% increase. NY, FL, Metros See Strongest Seller's Markets, With About Half as Many Sellers as Buyers With an estimated 5,771 sellers and 10,120 buyers in August—a 43% sell- er-to-buyer ratio—Newark, New Jersey, had the best seller's market. Nassau Coun- ty, New York (41.7% fewer sellers than buy- ers), Montgomery County, Pennsylvania (35.6% fewer), New Brunswick, New Jersey (25.5% fewer), and Cleveland (12% fewer) are the other four seller's markets. Because new building affects supply and demand, it can have a big impact on whether buyers or sellers have more negotiation power. Building permits are most frequently issued in the South, then in the West, Midwest, and North- east. As previously stated, the majority of the country's buyer markets are lo- cated in the South, whilst the Northeast and Midwest are home to the majority of the seller's markets. "Homebuyer demand isn't super strong, but sellers on Long Island are still fetching more than their asking price and receiving multiple offers because there aren't enough houses for sale," said Panagiota "Peggy" Papazaharias, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Nassau County, New York. "Many homeowners on Long Island are hesitant to sell and are holding onto their low mortgage rates particularly tightly because New York is so expensive; if they sell their home and move somewhere else in the area, they'd be dealing with not only a higher mortgage rate but also some of the highest home prices in the country." Conversely, in recent months, buyer's markets have shifted most in Denver and Las Vegas. In August, Denver's seller-to-buyer ratio increased from 7.9% to an antic- ipated 57.1%. The highest gain among the 50 most populous metro areas is 49.2 percentage points. Next are Detroit (+35.5 ppts to 30.6%), Nashville (+38.7 ppts to 107.6%), Seattle (+39.5 ppts to 26.8%), and Las Vegas (+48.8 ppts to 96.7%). "We have more homes for sale in Denver than we've had in quite a while," local Redfin Premier agent Tamara Mat- tox-Kabat said. "At the same time, there are many first-time buyers who aren't sure if they can afford to buy and are hoping mortgage rates come down fur- ther, but home prices could rise if rates fall further. Previously, a first-time buyer would look at one-bedroom condos; now they're purchasing two-bedroom units so they can get a roommate to help cover the mortgage."