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MortgagePoint » Your Trusted Source for Mortgage Banking and Servicing News 70 December 2025 J O U R N A L one step closer to balance. Where new listings grow, sales flow," said Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American. Examining Sales & Listing Trends Nationwide First American used a straightfor- ward "how close to normal" assessment for both metrics by comparing October 2025 new listings and sales in 75 major markets to each market's own October 2018–2019 average. Since flow is import- ant for transactions, we concentrate on fresh listings. If properties take longer to sell, active inventory may rise, but new listings provide buyers with additional possibilities. Using the 75-market aver- age for each measure as the midlines, the outcome is a scatterplot with four quadrants. This is what the quadrants display with that framing: • Pace setters: For both new listings and sales, these markets are nearer their pre-pandemic October levels than the average market. As supply improves and sales react, these markets seem to be spearheading the return to more normalized activity. Pittsburgh, Knox- ville, Tennessee, and Virginia Beach, Virginia, are a few examples. Mar- kets from the South, Northeast, and Midwest are included in this area, and many of them are reasonably priced. • Demand-ahead: Compared to listings, sales are closer to the market's pre-pandemic average, and they are also closer than the average market as a whole. This quadrant is dominated by markets in the Northeast and Midwest. Consider cities like Boston or Detroit, where buyer demand appears to be strong in relation to what is being marketed. These metros may become pace setters if supply becomes even more unrestricted. • Supply-ahead: More than the average market, new listings have returned to normal. Many of these are Southern markets, such as San Antonio or Tampa, Florida. Demand-side frictions, such as price restrictions, rate sensitivity, or regional labor market and economic conditions, are probably reflected in the pattern. • Stuck in neutral: Compared to the average market, both metrics deviate further from each market's pre-pan- demic norm. This includes Western metropolitan areas like Portland, OR, and Los Angeles, where sales have not yet caught up, and new listings are still below average. New Listings Helping Strengthen Complex Housing Market Improving inventory appears to be a crucial component of a long-term recov- ery, as evidenced by the high correlation between the normalization of sales volume and new listings. For October, First American up- dated its Existing-Home Sales Outlook Report to show that: • Existing-home sales for October are expected to increase 0.3% from the previous month's pace of sales and increase 1.1% compared with the pace of sales a year ago. • The largest contributors to the projected monthly increase in existing-home sales are a resilient economy (+0.3%), a weaker rate lock- in effect as measured by the lagged* spread between the prevailing mar- ket mortgage rate and the average rate for all outstanding mortgages (+0.3%), and higher house-buying power (+0.1%). *Note: The spread is incorporated with a two-month lag in the Exist- ing-Home Sales Outlook model. MORE LOW-INCOME AMERICANS LIVING PAYCHECK TO PAYCHECK T he percentage of U.S. house- holds living paycheck to paycheck grew slightly as lower-income Americans continue to struggle financially while their wages fail to keep up with inflation, according to a recent analysis from the Bank of America Institute. According to the analysis, 29% of lower-income households are living paycheck to paycheck. That's up slightly from 2024 and from 27.1% in 2023, the data shows. The Bank of America Insti- tute defines paycheck-to-paycheck as spending more than 95% of household income on necessities such as housing,