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» IN THE NEWS Maryland rank: 9 90+ Day Delinquency Rate Foreclosure Rate September 2013 3.4% Unemployment Rate 3.6% 6.7% year ago 3.8% 4.9% 6.9% Pro Teck Looks at Impact of Judicial vs. Non-Judicial on Recovery year-over-year change -10.1% -25.4% -2.9% Top County SoMerSeT CounTy 90+ Day Delinquency Rate September 2013 4.6% Foreclosure Rate 7.1% year ago 4.2% 8.7% year-over-year change 11.7% -18.3% Top Core-Based Statistical Area CAMBridge, Md 90+ Day Delinquency Rate Foreclosure Rate September 2013 3.3% 7.1% year ago 3.9% 9.1% year-over-year change -15.4% -22.6% note: The 90+ day delinquecy rate is the percentage of outstanding mortgage loans that are seriously delinquent. The foreclosure rate is the percentage of outstanding mortgage loans currently in foreclosure. State rank is based on the September 2013 foreclosure rate. All figures are rounded to the nearest decimal. The unemployment rate reflects preliminary September 2013 figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. All other data courtesy of LPS Data & Analytics. Massachusetts rank: 24 90+ Day Delinquency Rate Foreclosure Rate September 2013 3.4% Unemployment Rate 2.0% 7.1% year ago 3.4% 2.6% 6.8% year-over-year change 0.7% -20.1% 4.4% STAT INSIGHT Top County Franklin CounTy 90+ Day Delinquency Rate September 2013 5.6% Foreclosure Rate 3.5% year ago 4.5% 3.3% year-over-year change 23.5% 7.2% Top Core-Based Statistical area PiTTSField, Ma 90+ Day Delinquency Rate Foreclosure Rate September 2013 4.5% 3.4% year ago 4.0% 3.7% year-over-year change 12.5% Waltham, Massachusetts-based Pro Teck Valuation Services recently released the company's October Home Value Forecast (HVF). Pro Teck's report examines the impact of state judicial and non-judicial foreclosure proceedings on the housing recovery in markets across this country. "Two years ago much of the bad news was centered on California, a non-judicial state. Foreclosures were driving down prices and there were high REO discounts," said Tom O'Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. "But banks moved swiftly to cut losses, peak foreclosure activity came and went, and many markets are now on the rebound. In fact, eight of our top 10 metros for this month are in California." October's HVF update includes a listing of the 10 best- and 10 worst-performing metros as ranked by the HVF market condition model. The rankings are run for the singlefamily home markets in the top 200 corebased statistical areas (CBSAs) on a monthly basis to highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of real estate market indicators, including: sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory (MRI), days on market (DOM), sold-to-list price ratio, and foreclosure and REO activity. -10.2% note: The 90+ day delinquecy rate is the percentage of outstanding mortgage loans that are seriously delinquent. The foreclosure rate is the percentage of outstanding mortgage loans currently in foreclosure. State rank is based on the September 2013 foreclosure rate. All figures are rounded to the nearest decimal. The unemployment rate reflects preliminary September 2013 figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. All other data courtesy of LPS Data & Analytics. 9.4% Share of Massachusetts' outstanding mortgages that were delinquent or in foreclosure as of September month-end. Source: Lender Processing Services VISIT US ONLINE @ DSNEWS.COM "Our top 10 metro list in October is dominated by California, but all are showing impressive numbers. Each have less than four months of inventory and are averaging more than 20 percent year-over-year appreciation," O'Grady said. "Of importance is the foreclosure as a percent of sales indicators— all are under 10 percent." O'Grady says basic supply-demand market fundamentals have returned, which should help lead to a sustainable recovery. The metro areas ranked as the best-performing markets are all in non-judicial states. October's top CBSAs: »» Modesto, California »» Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minnesota-Wisconsin »» Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, California »» Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, California »» Santa Rosa, California »» Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, California »» San Diego-Carlsbad, California »» Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, California »» San Francisco-Redwood City, California »» San Rafael, California O'Grady notes the difficulty of sustaining a market turnaround when 25 to 50 percent of sales are foreclosures. When foreclosures represent a significant share of total sales and their discounted prices pull down the prices of non-distressed sales, it is known as the "contagion effect," according to O'Grady. "This month, that's what is happening in our bottom 10 metros, which also happen to be in judicial states," he said. Bottom CBSAs for October: »» Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Florida »» Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Florida »» Rockford, Illinois »» Port St. Lucie, Florida »» Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, Florida »» Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Florida »» Lake County-Kenosha County, IllinoisWisconsin »» Tampa-Clearwater-St. Petersburg, Florida »» Daytona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Florida »» Cape Coral-Ft. Myers, Florida O'Grady notes that even though other market fundamentals are looking good, such as recent price appreciation and shrinking inventories, foreclosures are "still playing a major part in holding these real estate markets back." Foreclosures must play a less active role in the local markets, he says. 81