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49 » VISIT US ONLINE @ DSNEWS.COM HOME SALES TYPICALLY SLOW IN AUTUMN DESPITE ECONOMIC GAINS, ANALYST SAYS Lawrence Yun, chief economist and SVP of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), issued a recent statement reporting that despite reports of more jobs, lower interest rates, and overall economic improvement, home sales are typically slow for the autumn months. According to Yun, the autumn and winter months have historically been unkind to the housing market. He reports an average decline of 16.4 percent in home sales month-over-month from August to September over the last 15 years. After holding steady in October, Yun says, home sales typically take another 8-percent dive in November. Figures for December usually match those in November before they plummet by 27 percent in January, then begin the slow rebound as winter turns to spring. "Despite the weaker business opportunities in the upcoming autumn and winter months, media headlines on home sales are likely to show an upturn and possible strengthening conditions based on NAR home sales releases," Yun said in the statement. "What gives?" e difference is in seasonal adjustments, Yun says. Most economic and housing data (including unemployment and GDP) reported in the media is seasonally adjusted in order to "better gauge an underlying economic trend of slight weakening or slight strengthening," he said. Yun cited Myrtle Beach as an example of how seasonally adjusted employment data can make numbers appear more favorable than they actually are. He says the South Carolina beach town usually has about 15,000 more jobs available in summer than the rest of the year; if one summer there were only 6,000 more jobs available in Myrtle Beach, then the seasonally adjusted data would indicate that employment in the city was doing worse. When applied to housing, if the annual average month-over-month decline in home sales from August to September is 16.4 percent, and one year they decline only 8 percent in September, the media reports that that housing market has improved, Yun explains. And seasonally adjusted data is commonly what consumers are exposed to through the media. "e media just may be reporting improving home sales throughout the upcoming autumn and winter," Yun said. "is does not mean a home seller should be raising the listing price. Invariably, there are fewer home buyers in autumn and winter." GDP GROWTH FOR Q2 BEATS EXPECTATIONS e economy performed slightly better than expected during the second quarter, according to a second estimate released recently by the Commerce Department. e Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that gross domestic product (GDP) in that quarter at an annualized rate of 4.2 percent, marginally more than the 4-percent growth originally recorded in July's initial estimate. Economists had expected no change from the first report. With its latest estimate, BEA said the overall picture of the economy was about the same as in the first report, with the biggest differences being in nonresidential fixed investment (which increased more than previously thought) and private inventory investment (which was up slightly less). e second-quarter growth estimates follow a poor final reading for the first quarter, which saw GDP drop 2.1 as poor weather and a slumping economy weighed the country down. e sudden upturn for the second quarter reflects better numbers in exports, private inventory investment, state and local government spending, consumer spending, and both residential and nonresidential fixed investment, the government reports. ough unsurprised by this latest report, economists say it comes as a positive sign. "Today's report does not significantly alter our view of U.S. economic growth, which already called for a sustained acceleration from the Q1 malaise," said Michael Dolega, senior economist at TD Bank. "However, the details offer confirmation that the acceleration remains on a solid footing." default servicing in print and online @ dsnews.com 08.2014 default servicing in print and online default servicing in print and online default servicing in print and online default servicing in print and online .201 .201 .201 .201 .201 .201 .201 .201 .201 .2014 default servicing in print and online default servicing in print and online default servicing in print and online default servicing in print and online default servicing in print and online default servicing in print and online default servicing in print and online default servicing in print and online @ dsnews.com dsnews.com dsnews.com dsnews.com dsnews.com dsnews.com dsnews.com 08 08 08 08 08 08.201 .201 Housing's Golden Investment or Fairy Tale? While data shows that the housing industry is making a signifi cant rebound, some housing market investors are fi nding that in the realm of purchasing of non-performing notes is a mere fantasy. 68 Q&A SESSIONS GOOD FOR BUSINESS Knowing which questions to ask is a critical piece to investor success in the changing marketplace. 72 PREYING FOR PAYOFF Troubled homeowners are easy prey for scammers, but steps can be taken by homeowners and servicers to make sure their investments are protected. 64 APPLES, ORANGES, AND LEMONS: EFFECTIVELY MEASURING HAZARD- CLAIMS MANAGEMENT If the devil is truly in the details, one of those details for mortgage servicers is managing the mortgagee-fi led hazard insurance claims process. THE LEADER IN DEFAULT SERVICING NEWS Help shape the next issue of DS News. Drop us a line at Editor@DSNews.com.

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