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54 we look at the world through three lenses: economic, political and regulatory. On the economic front, 2016 is likely to be a somewhat tougher year than 2015. As regards total estimated mortgage loan originations, the analysis of both GSE's and the MBA are pretty consistent in their estimates of single family loan originations in the range of $1.4 trillion. at represents a decrease of about 10% from projected 2015 origination volumes. ese total origination estimates generally assume a modest increase in interest rates from current levels, a slight expansion in underwriting credit criteria, continuing improvement in the labor market and consumer confidence and an overall increase in single family housing starts. Perhaps the most significant element in these estimates, however, is the continuing shift to a purchase-centric market. By some estimates, refinances may account for as little as 30% of total originations in 2016. If that estimates holds, refinances as a percentage of total loan originations will be nearly 30% lower than 2015 levels. is will likely result in continuing consolidation among independent mortgage lenders – particularly those that have been slow to adjust to decreasing refinance volumes. e political outlook in this highly polarized pre-election period likely means the industry is in for more of the same inaction that characterized 2015. An increasingly lame duck administration, a divided Congress, a Republican House under new, largely untested leadership, and an election year, generally are not conditions that result in significant legislative initiatives. us, barring a black swan event, what little legislative action does occur will likely be designed to score political points against the opposition party and not to achieve long-term legislative progress. And for that reason, housing finance – no longer the hot button issue it was during the crisis – likely will not be high on the legislative agenda in 2016. Given the absence of strong Congressional leadership pushing for regulatory relief, we anticipate little change on the regulatory front in 2016. us, the industry will continue to be heavily focused on regulatory compliance, which will remain a significant factor in overall origination costs. e regulatory enforcement environment will also likely remain largely unchanged in 2016 – where the industry can expect that FHA False Claim enforcement actions will continue but with a sharper focus on independent, non-bank mortgage lenders. COVER FEATURE HAZARD CLAIMS MANAGEMENT FRAN WEICHSEL Director, Client Relations, DIMONT As the number of loans in default and properties going to foreclosure continue to shrink, vendors offering hazard claims management must either expand their services or plan for early retirement. Our clients are facing huge challenges in an era where the mantra is, "Doing more with less." is provides a great opportunity to leverage technology and industry knowledge to provide an outsourcing avenue for ancillary services as well as expand the hazard claim process to address parallel lines of business. Compliance with CFPB and other oversight agencies is top on the list. As a valued partner, it is important that your company understands new regulations as they are released so that you can proactively be addressing these requirements before they become an audit finding. Also, each client interprets these regulations differently, so you should work with your clients to understand how they are managing compliance to ensure you and your clients are working down the same path. At this point Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are in a position to take stock of their servicers' default portfolios and move properties to foreclosure which have been stalled somewhere in the path. 2016 will be a year to clean out this inventory. Deep dives into this population can provide that last chance to mitigate the imminent losses they are facing with these future foreclosures. As servicing shops and the GSEs shrink their employment numbers, vendors with the knowledge and technology can take on many services which might be as simple as handling communication among the servicer and vendors, providing necessary borrower or GSE notifications , or more complicated processes like loss draft management, FHA MI claims, etc. e list is endless for those vendors with the right resources. Data is becoming more important than ever. It is imperative that vendors provide access to key data elements, SLA metrics, timelines, etc. Some servicers are requesting automated data feeds into their systems so that they can "slice and dice" the data received. Others want vendors to provide the data either through regular reporting, or through a collaborative data portal. In short – 2016 will be a year when hazard claims vendors must expand and better integrate into the client's process. Vendors and servicers must work seamlessly, maintaining a higher efficiency and providing more solutions for an industry which is shrinking, both in volume and in resources. COVER FEATURE Cover Feature: 30 Top Executives Tell You The Future Cover Feature: 30 Top Executives Tell You The Future Cover Feature: 30 Top Executives Tell You The Future EXPERT OPINION The political outlook in this highly polarized pre-election period likely means the industry is in for more of the same inaction that characterized 2015. –BRIAN T. O'REILLY EXPERT OPINION Our clients are facing huge challenges in an era where the mantra is, "Doing more with less." –FRAN WEICHSEL

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