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February 2016 - The Coming Evolution

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38 HOW EFFECTIVE ARE FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC AT PREVENTING FORECLOSURES? It may be tougher to qualify for a mortgage loan to buy a home now than it was 10 years ago. But at least Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are helping borrowers who already have homes to stay in them. e GSEs have stated that preventing foreclosures and finding solutions for borrowers is a top priority for them. With October's total of 17,521 foreclosure prevention actions completed, the GSEs have prevented approximately 3.61 million foreclosures since the conservatorships began in September 2008—and 2.97 million of those actions have been home retention actions, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)'s October 2015 Foreclosure Prevention report released on recently. e number of home retention actions completed in October (14,377) was nearly the same as September's total (14,746). Nearly 11,000 of these actions were permanent loan modifications, which brought the total since the conservatorships began up to approximately 1.88 million—accounting for more than half of the 3.61 million foreclosure prevention actions completed since September 2008. Other home retention actions included repayment plans, forbearance plans, and charge-offs in lieu. e number of home forfeiture actions completed by the GSEs, which include short sales and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure, also remained little changed from September to October (2,707 compared to 2,744). ere was little movement in the total number of foreclosure prevention actions completed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from September to October (17,453 compared to 17,121). e serious delinquency rate on single-family residential homes backed by either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac ticked downward from 1.52 percent in September to 1.50 in October, according to FHFA. is percentage is close to its 2008 level, right around the start of the crisis, and is close to one-third of the national average reported by CoreLogic for October (3.4 percent). While the number of foreclosure starts on GSE-backed properties declined by 12 percent from September to October (from 21,590 down to 18,946), the number of third-party and foreclosure sales remained virtually unchanged over the month (9,143 in September to 9,105 in October). 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1.5% 5.8% 1.9% ENTERPRISES' 60-PLUS-DAYS DELINQUNECY RATES 60-PLUS DAYS DELINQUENCY RATE REMAINED STABLE IN OCTOBER Source: FHFA (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) Oct. 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 PRIVATE SECTOR JOB MARKET SHOWS NO SIGNS OF SLOWING Strong job growth in October and November was one of the main economic factors that led the Federal Reserve to raise rates in Decem- ber. And according to ADP's December 2015 National Employment Report, that job growth is not showing any signs of slowing down heading into 2016. ADP's report, which is produced in col- laboration with Moody's Analytics and is derived from actual ADP payroll data, showed private sector job gains of 257,000 from November to December. "Strong job growth shows no signs of abating," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, "e only industry shed- ding jobs is energy. If this pace of job growth is sustained, which seems likely, the economy will be back to full employment by mid-year. is is a significant achievement, given that the last time the economy was at full employment was nearly a decade ago." December's job gains were the largest total for any one month in 2015, said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute, who noted "Overall, the average monthly employment growth was just under 200,000 for the year in contrast to almost 240,000 jobs per month in 2014. Weakness in the energy and manufacturing sectors was mostly responsible for the drop off." e news of December's private sector job gains bodes well for the overall economy, which made major strides in 2015—as indicated by the Fed's action to close out the year. Fannie Mae reported recently that consumer sentiment rose significantly to end 2015, with Chief Economist Doug Duncan stating that "Consumers ended the year on an improved note with regard to their income, job security, and overall economic outlook." Duncan also noted that "Brightening eco- nomic prospects, if sustained, should stimulate demand for homeownership" provided upward pressure on rents and a low housing supply do not hamper affordability.

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