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62 But for former Rep. Jim Moran (D-Virginia) and like-minded sources, the matter isn't just about if or when, but how much—as in, how much could drastic change to Dodd-Frank impact the stronger but still- recovering economy? "e financial stocks have never been higher," Moran said, "and [banks] have adjusted to dealing with Dodd-Frank regulations. ere's no urgency to this, and if you're not careful, and you screw it up at all, it could backfire." We spoke with these sources to travel beyond the headlines and determine when the marketplace can expect a rollback—and what that rollback will look like for a behemoth law that continues to shape the post-recession economy. THE ROAD TO REPEAL Like Obamacare itself, Dodd-Frank was always controversial. Passed in the wake of the Great Recession, the financial-reform law inaugurated a new era of banking regulation that Obama-coalition officials called necessary and Tea Party Republicans deemed an unmitigated disaster. Just look back at the divisiveness seen over the last eight years. At every juncture, Republicans—who cast not one vote for Dodd-Frank to begin with—often tied up the law with red tape of their own. After winning back control of the House of Representatives in 2010, GOP officials in Congress attempted to pass a bill at least once every year in order to hamstring the law's implementation. Digging in their heels, insurgent lawmakers dragged Obama officials before their committees, convened hearings into regulatory burdens for small and independent community banks, and—in a prelude to the obstruction that would fatally stall Judge Merrick Garland's Supreme Court nomination—refused to consider a director for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). "Many Republicans see the Dodd-Frank Act as unnecessary government regulation," Goldberg said. He added that many Republicans believe "it's still possible to see taxpayers on the hook to bail out failing financial institutions in the event of a crisis." And yet—despite all of the rhetoric and legislative activity—the prospects for Dodd- Frank's repeal remain as elusive and politically risky for Republicans in Congress as those for the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. e law's defenders point to a strengthened economy. In a blog post for the University of California, Berkeley, economist Sylvia Allegretto estimated that it took 65 consecutive months of job growth—about six years—with a monthly average of 203,000 new jobs just to recapture all the ones hemorrhaged during the crisis. In the housing industry, that perennial barometer for economic health, mortgage-interest rates, continues to climb, encouraging first-time homebuyers to lock into the American Dream. at's a far cry from the death spiral many Americans saw during the Great Recession, to which the Government Accountability Office ultimately attributed some $22 trillion of losses in wealth nationwide—and the British Journal of Psychiatry linked to roughly 10,000 suicides across the Western world. More so, sections of the law appear to be gaining in popularity among voters. In 2013, the polling firm Lake Research Partners surveyed 1,000-plus likely 2014 voters about their opinions regarding Dodd- Frank and consumer protection provisions. eir findings? According to Americans for Financial Security, which participated in the study, more than eight in 10 voters desire tough enforcement for Wall Street. Some two- thirds of respondents concurred with the need for more accountability in the financial services industry. Interestingly, eight in 10 respondents likewise backed the CFPB, and roughly half said they "strongly favor" the agency. A similar survey reported much of the same findings in 2014. Indeed, there are signs that even the Trump administration may soften the party- line approach to Dodd-Frank. In March, Bloomberg reported that Mark Calabria—a former director of financial regulatory studies with the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute, now chief economist to Vice President Mike Pence—told conference attendees that the CFPB would actually stay intact. e news outlet quoted Calabria as saying the Trump administration would look to retool the agency so that it "goes after bad actors, rather than trying to make policy decisions that have nothing to do with bad actors." e administration official didn't immediately return a request for comment. Jordan Haedtler, Campaign Manager for the D.C.-based Fed Up Campaign, sounded a less optimistic note about conservative restraint with the law. Republicans aren't "paying much regard to what's popular in Dodd-Frank," he said. WHAT'S LIKELY TO GO So, what's most likely to wind up on the chopping block? e Financial CHOICE Act may be a good place to start if you want to know. Sources said that Republicans will likely draw heavily from the bill, which was first unveiled last year as an "The financial stocks have never been higher, and [banks] have adjusted to dealing with Dodd- Frank regulations. There's no urgency to this, and if you're not careful, and you screw it up at all, it could backfire." - Former Rep. Jim Moran (D-Virginia)

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