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39 » VISIT US ONLINE @ DSNEWS.COM HOW OIL PRICES IMPACT MORTGAGE DEFAULT According to data published last month in CoreLogic's Loan Performance Insights Report, 4.6 percent of mortgages nationally were in some stage of delinquency, defined as 30 days or more past due, as of August 2017. is number represents a 0.6 percentage point year-over-year decline compared to August 2016's delinquency rate of 5.2 percent. According to the report, August 2017's foreclosure inventory rate was down to 0.6 percent from 0.9 percent in August 2016. is marked the lowest foreclosure inventory rate for the month of August since it was 0.5 percent in August 2006. CoreLogic said that early-stage delinquencies, defined as 30-59 days past due, were at 2 percent for August 2017, marking a drop from 2.1 percent from August 2016. Meanwhile, mortgages 60-89 days past due were unchanged at 0,7 percent. Finally, CoreLogic states that serious delinquencies, defined as 90 days or more past due, were at their lowest level since 2007 when the rate was 1.9 percent in October of that year and 1.7 percent in August. August 2017's serious delinquency rate was down to 1.9 percent from 2.4 percent in August 2016. While overall delinquency rates were down, CoreLogic reported that Alaska and other areas dependent on oil experienced increases in delinquency rates. "Crude oil prices this August were less than half their level three years ago. is has led to oil-related layoffs and an increase in loan delinquency rates in states like Alaska and in oil-centric metro areas like Houston," said CoreLogic chief economist Dr. Frank Nothaft. e CoreLogic report also states that early-stage delinquency rates can be volatile, so studies also analyze transition rates, defined as the transition of a mortgage from current to past due. CoreLogic said that the share of mortgages that went from current to 30 days past due was unchanged from August 2016 at 0.9 percent for August 2017. "Serious delinquency and foreclosure rates are at their lowest levels in more than a decade, signaling the final stages of recovery in the U.S. housing market," said CoreLogic CEO and President Frank Martell. RESILIENCY IS KEEPING HOUSING OUTLOOK OPTIMISTIC Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group (ESR) released its November 2017 Economic and Housing Outlook, which includes monthly updates on economic development, economic forecast, multifamily market commentary, and housing forecast. is month, economic developments reported the first print of Q 3 economic growth showed surprising resiliency—as the expected economic hit from the recent natural disasters either failed to materialize or was drowned out by business optimism. "Recent data showed a stronger pickup in domestic demand than anticipated, leading us to increase our growth forecast for the final quarter of this year and coming quarters," said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. e economic growth forecast report revealed an increase by two-tenths to 2.4 percent following a stronger-than-expected estimate of Q 3 real GDP growth and an improvement to the Q 4 outlook. "We also revised higher our 2018 growth forecast to 2 percent," Duncan added. "Tax cuts, if enacted, present upside risk to our growth forecast for next year but could also lead to more aggressive Fed action. Housing still remains a drag on the economy, as shortages of labor and available lots, coupled with rising building material prices, further complicate existing inventory, affordability, and sales challenges." e group's housing forecast outlook reveals that housing remains a soft spot, and is expected to "subtract from GDP growth for the third consecutive quarter" as low housing inventory continues to provide challenges to home prices at the expense of affordability. In addition, Fannie Mae announced last month that it will resume low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC) activities in an effort to provide a reliable source of capital for affordable rental housing and underserved markets. According to the release, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) approved Fannie Mae's re-entry into the LIHTC market as an equity investor effective immediately. Jeffery Hayward, EVP, Multifamily at Fannie Mae said this is a significant step forward for the enterprise to better serve the multifamily market and play an integral role in addressing America's affordable housing crisis. "e LIHTC program has long been the most effective tool at driving housing supply for low- and very low-income families," Hayward said. "Fannie Mae's renewed participation in these business activities will support the LIHTC market by providing a reliable source of capital and a stabilizing influence on affordable housing throughout diverse economic markets and cycles." Since its beginning, the LIHTC program has built nearly 3 million apartment units, housing about 6.7 million low-income families, and currently finances the construction and rehabilitation of almost all subsidized housing in the U.S. According to the FHFA's Performance and Accountability Report, the number of homes the GSEs own through foreclosure declined to roughly 38,000 in Q3 2017, down from approximately 54,000 properties at the end of Q3 2016. KNOW THIS

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