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November, 2012

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PLANT AHEAD FOR THE NEW SEASON OF GROWTH. The culmination of a year-long pursuit to enhance, develop, and help your business fl ourish today, tomorrow, and in the years ahead. Sow the seeds, and reap the rewards of a year of unprecedented prosperity. IT BEGINS TODAY. WELLS FARGO: FED STIMULUS TO SET UP IMPROVED MARKET FOR 2013 may not greatly speed up the housing recovery, it should provide a good boost to spring 2013, Wells Fargo reported in September. The bank's economics group issued a special While the Federal Reserve's next stimulus commentary in its Housing Data Wrap-Up report for August 2012 examining the potential effects, or lack thereof, the Fed's new mortgage bond-buying plan may have on housing, as well as updating the group's forecast for the market. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke bank's economic team says prices have finally bottomed out; its forecast is for most price measures to rise at around a 2 percent annual rate over the next few years. If, as the group expects, home price improvements were exaggerated by seasonal factors, prices will likely soften a bit toward the end of 2012 and the beginning of 2013. Meanwhile, sales of new and existing revealed earlier in the month plans for a third round of quantitative easing. In hopes of stimu- lating activity and reducing unemployment, the Fed plans to purchase $40 billion per month of mortgage-backed securities until there is evi- dence of a self-reinforcing economic recovery. The Fed's influence should put downward homes improved for the past year and are set for even stronger gains in 2013. From January through July, sales of existing homes saw sizeable increases with single-family home sales up 7.9 percent and sales of condominiums and townhomes up 3.2 percent. While sales have increased so far this year, pressure on long-term interest rates, but Wells Fargo says the benefits from such a move will be modest at best, citing already-low mortgage rates. The bigger issue at hand is the "fiscal cliff," which has led to a slowdown in hiring and turned back gains in consumer confidence. "What really ails the economy is the lack of THE FIVE STAR CONFERENCE AND EXPO SEPTEMBER 8-10, 2013 | DALLAS, TEXAS a coherent fiscal policy, and monetary policy is not a perfect substitute for fiscal policy," Wells Fargo's economics group said. "Any benefit to the housing market from the Fed's latest move is likely limited until we see some resolution to the issues surrounding the fiscal cliff, which means the real payoff from even lower mortgage rates likely will not be apparent in the housing market until early 2013." Even without the Fed's help, Wells Fargo they appear to have stalled a bit during the late summer. Furthermore, many builders note an increase in cancellations. Both issues are attrib- uted once again to the approaching fiscal cliff. Although the new round of quantitative easing is not expected to have a great effect on interest rates, Wells Fargo expects the added attractiveness of non-agency mortgages and the added liquidity to the mortgage market will boost builder and lender confidence, leading to a real boost in sales and construction for spring 2013. "This may have been part of the motivation for the Fed's actions," the group said. "Monetary policy is typically more effective when it is going with the tide instead of trying to reverse it." Assuming economic growth remains more said the housing recovery picked up speed in the past year, evidenced by solidifying prices and declining foreclosures in many markets. The 30 or less flat and the fiscal cliff is safely avoided, Wells Fargo expects the housing recovery will continue in slow turns until finally returning to normal conditions in the second half of the decade.

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