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53 January 2025 J O U R N A L January 2025 » increase of 21% from the previous year and 5% from the previous month. In November 2024, the states with the highest number of REOs were: • California (402 REOs) • Texas (232 REOs) • New York (223 REOs) • Illinois (206 REOs) • Pennsylvania (160 REOs) The largest number of REOs in November 2024 occurred in significant metro statistical areas (MSAs) having a population of one million or more, including: • New York (198 REOs) • Chicago (177 REOs) • Baltimore (88 REOs) • San Francisco (83 REOs) • Los Angeles (80 REOs) No matter the state or metro, fore- closures may heighten or moderate in 2025 as the market remains unpredict- able. However, per the report, due to seasonal inf luences, disclosure filings eased nationwide in November 2024. "As we move into 2025, we'll be closely monitoring how economic pressures and market dynamics may inf luence a potential rebound in activi- ty," Barber said. WHICH HOUSING MARKETS HAVE BEEN THE MOST VULNERABLE? A TTOM has released its latest Special Housing Market Im- pact Risk Report, a study ex- amining county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity, and other measures in the third quarter of 2024. The report shows that California, New Jersey, and Illinois once again had high concentrations of the most-at-risk mar- kets in the country, with parts of Flor- ida also joining that mix. Less-vulner- able markets continued to be clustered in the Southern United States. The Q3 patterns—derived from gaps in affordability, underwater mort- gages, foreclosures, and unemployment trends—revealed that two-thirds of the 50 counties around the United States considered most exposed to potential fallbacks were in California, Florida, Illinois, and New Jersey. Florida was a new addition to that group in Q3 after earlier periods when it had fewer mar- kets making the list of areas at elevated risk of downturns. County-level housing markets on the latest list included six in and around Chicago, five in or near New York City, and four in southern New Jersey. Another 13 were in California, mostly inland from the Pacific Coast. The rest were scattered largely around the Northeast, South, and Midwest. At the other end of the risk spectrum, more than half the markets considered least likely to decline fell in Virginia, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Montana, and New Hampshire. They included four in the Washington, D.C., region. For the study, ATTOM considered counties more or less at-risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major homeownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates. The conclusions were drawn from an anal- ysis of the most recent home afford- ability, equity, and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a com- bination of those four categories in 578 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in Q3 2024. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks. Measuring the Impact of Rising Prices An increase in home prices has surpassed most wage gains around the country to varying degrees, leading to homeownership costs consuming more than triple the portion of average wages in some parts of the country compared to others. According to Zillow, the average U.S. home value currently stands at $359,099, up 2.6% year over year. Similar disparities can be found in several other measures: unemployment rates, the level of homeowners facing foreclosure, and the portion owing more on their mort- gages than their homes are worth. "The recent market risk patterns changed a bit in the third quarter, with some new areas making the list of plac- es more or less exposed to downfalls. But the big picture remained pretty much the same around the country as differences in important metrics helped produce varying pockets of vulnerability," said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. "As with past reports, this one is not meant to suggest any given area is about to fall or is immune from problems. Rather, it spotlights locations that look to be more or less able to with- stand significant changes in market conditions. We will continue to keep a close watch on markets throughout the country to see how things track." Pinpointing the Most Vulnerable Markets The metropolitan areas around New York, New York, and Chicago, Illinois, as well as areas of California, had 24 of the 50 U.S. counties consid- ered most vulnerable in Q3 of 2024 to housing market troubles. The counties were among 578 around the nation with enough data to analyze. The most at- risk counties included: • Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry, and Will counties in Illinois and Lake County in Indiana • Two in New York City (Kings County, which covers Brooklyn, and New York County, which covers Manhattan)