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MortgagePoint » Your Trusted Source for Mortgage Banking and Servicing News 54 January 2025 J O U R N A L • Three in the New York City suburbs (Essex, Passaic, and Sussex coun- ties, all in northern New Jersey) • Another 13 were located in Califor- nia: Butte County (Chico), Contra Costa County (outside Oakland), El Dorado County (outside Sacramen- to), Humboldt County (Eureka) and Solano County (outside Sacramento) in the northern part of the state, plus Kern County (Bakersfield), Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), Merced County, San Joaquin County (Stock- ton) and Stanislas County (Modesto) in central California. Two others, Riverside and San Bernardino coun- ties, were in southern California. Affordability, Underwater Mort- gages, Foreclosures, and Unemploy- ment High in Most At-Risk Markets Major homeownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes, and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes and condos were considered seriously unaffordable in 30 of the 50 counties deemed most vulnerable to market drop-offs in Q3 of 2024. That means those expenses consumed at least 43% of average local wages. Nationwide, major expenses on typical homes sold in the third quarter required 34% of average local wages, a level also above basic affordability benchmarks. The highest percentages in the most at-risk markets were reported in: • Kings County (Brooklyn), New York (108% of average local wages needed for major ownership costs) • Riverside County, California (70.2% of average local wages needed for major ownership costs) • El Dorado County, California (outside Sacramento) (66.3% of av- erage local wages needed for major ownership costs) • Passaic County, New Jersey (outside New York City) (65.9% of average local wages needed for major own- ership costs) • New York County (Manhattan), New York (65.1% of average local wages needed for major ownership costs) At least 6% of residential mortgages were underwater in Q3 2024 in 23 of the 50 most at-risk counties. Nationwide, 5.5% of mortgages fell into that cate- gory, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were found in: • Clair County, Illinois (outside St. Louis, Missouri) (15% underwater) • Tangipahoa Parish, Louisiana (east of Baton Rouge) (13.7% underwater) • Pinal County, Arizona (outside Phoenix) (12.4% underwater) • Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania (11.9% underwater) • Marion County, Florida (outside Gainesville) (11% underwater) More than one of every 1,000 resi- dential properties faced a foreclosure action in Q3 of 2024 in 35 of the 50 most vulnerable counties. Nationwide, one in 1,618 homes were in that position. The highest foreclosure-case rates in those counties were: • Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), Florida (one in 449 residential prop- erties facing possible foreclosure) • Osceola County, Florida (outside Orlando) (one in 473 residential prop- erties facing possible foreclosure) • Dorchester County, South Carolina (outside Charleston) (one in 509 res- idential properties facing possible foreclosure) • Cumberland County (Vineland), New Jersey (one in 571 residential properties facing possible foreclo- sure) • Warren County, New Jersey (out- side Allentown, Pennsylvania) (one in 574 residential properties facing possible foreclosure) The August 2024 unemployment rate was at least 5% in 34 of the 50 most at-risk counties, while the nationwide figure stood at 4.2%. The highest rates were reported in: • Merced County, California (9.1%) • Kern County (Bakersfield), Califor- nia (8.7%) • Kings County, California (outside Fresno) (8.2%) • Cumberland County (Vineland), New Jersey (7.7%) • Madera County, California (outside Fresno) (7.4%) Areas Least At-Risk Twenty-two of the 50 counties considered least vulnerable to housing market problems from among the 578 reviewed in the third-quarter report were in the South. Another 13 were in the Midwest, followed by 11 in the Northeast and just four in the West. Tennessee had eight of the least at- risk counties in Q3, including: • Rutherford and Williamson coun- ties in the Nashville metro area • Blount and Knox County in the Knoxville metro area • Hamilton County (Chattanooga) • Bradley County (outside Chatta- nooga) • Sullivan County (Kingsport) • Washington County (Johnson City) Wisconsin had seven metros report- ing as low at-risk, including: • Brown County (Green Bay) • Outagamie County (outside Green Bay) • Dane County (Madison) • Rock County (outside Madison) • Eau Claire County, La Crosse County • Winnebago County (Oshkosh)