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MortgagePoint » Your Trusted Source for Mortgage Banking and Servicing News 78 August 2025 J O U R N A L household income growth expectations increased. Households were more opti- mistic about their year-ahead financial situations and credit access. Key findings from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's June 2025 Survey include: Household Finance • The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9% in June, equaling its 12-month trailing average. • Median household spending growth expectations declined by 0.2 per- centage points to 4.8%. • Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago showed a smaller share of households reporting it is harder to get credit. Expectations for future credit availability also improved, with a smaller share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead. • The average perceived probabil- ity of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 12.0%, reaching the lowest level since May 2024. • The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at the current income level increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%. • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 1.9 percentage points to 7.3%, the high- est reading since October 2024. • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on savings accounts will be higher in 12 months decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 23.7%. Perceptions about households' current financial situations compared to a year ago improved markedly, with a smaller share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a larger share of households reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expecta- tions about households' financial situa- tions also improved, with a smaller share of households expecting a worse financial situation and a larger share of households expecting a better financial situation in one year from now. The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 36.0%. Inflationary Concerns • Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0% at the one-year-ahead horizon. They were unchanged at the three- year (3.0%) and five-year-ahead (2.6%) horizons in June. The survey's measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons. • Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—de- creased at the one- and three-year- ahead horizons and was unchanged at the five-year-ahead horizon. • Median home price growth expecta- tions remained unchanged at 3.0%. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023. • Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations increased by 1.5 percentage points for gas to 4.2%, by 1.9 percentage points for the cost of medi- cal care to 9.3% (the highest level since June 2023), by 1.6 percentage points for the cost of college education to 9.1%, and by 0.7 percentage points for rent to 9.1%. The median year-ahead is expected to change in food prices and remain unchanged at 5.5%. Perceptions about households' current financial situations compared to a year ago improved markedly, with a smaller share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a larger share of households reporting a better financial situation.