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» VISIT US ONLINE @ DSNEWS.COM INDUSTRY INSIGHT F irrepressible wave of foreclosures still engulfing our nation, according to researchers at the University of California at Riverside. political scientist Martin Johnson, both of UC- Riverside, studied the impact of foreclosures on voter turnout in California for the 2008 presidential primaries and general election. The results of their study appeared in the July 2012 edition of the Social Science Quarterly, a peer- reviewed journal published by the Southwestern Social Science Association. "Communities experiencing an average Sociologist Vanesa Estrada-Correa and college degree, all of which were shown in other studies to affect voter turnout. "Neighborhoods affect the political orget controversial voter identification laws. A more potent weapon keeping voters from casting their ballots and participating in this year's presidential election resides with banks: the seemingly of Carrington Mortgage Holdings and a former senior executive with RealtyTrac. "Certainly physical dislocation can be a foreclosure rate turned out [to vote in the 2008 presidential election] at a rate 0.27 percent less than communities experiencing no foreclosures," Estrada-Correa and Johnson found. "Communities with rates of foreclosure one standard deviation greater than the mean turned out at a rate 0.66 percent less than those with no foreclosures. In ZIP codes with foreclosure rates two standard deviations greater than the mean, voters turned out at a rate 1.05 percent less than ZIP codes with no foreclosures." California "was exemplar of the foreclosure and subprime crisis," the researchers said, citing statistics from DataQuick that show more than 1.2 million Californians received a notice of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2011. According to DataQuick, more than 640,977 of the default notices issued during that period resulted in a trustee's deed recorded, indicating the home was lost to foreclosure and the residents were forced to find a new place to live. Estrada-Correa and Johnson looked at participation of their residents," the researchers wrote. "Other things being equal, individuals are more likely to vote when they live in places where neighbors vigorously participate in politics while individuals are less likely to vote when their neighbors are less civically active. Given that foreclosure creates instability in communities, we expect areas that experience higher levels of foreclosure have lower voter turnout." Presidential Impact The findings could have significant implications for the 2012 election. Of the 12 states considered election "battlegrounds," five—Florida, Nevada, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin—are among the 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates in the country, according to RealtyTrac. These five states have a combined 79 electoral votes. Of the other five states with foreclosure rates among the nation's top 10, two—California and Illinois with a combined 75 electoral votes—are considered safely Democratic; one— Indiana with 11 electoral votes—is regarded as Republican; and the other two—Arizona and Georgia, with 27 electoral votes—are said to "lean" Republican. In a close election such as this year, voter turnout is critical. "There are so many factors that affect voter foreclosure and voter-turnout data by ZIP code, controlling for such factors as poverty, ethnicity, and the proportion of residents with a four-year turnout that it's difficult to say definitively that foreclosures are a major factor in keeping potential voters from the polls based on a single study taken in a fairly small geography during one election," according to Rick Sharga, EVP factor," Sharga continued. "It's also possible that people under the enormous emotional stress often associated with personal financial difficulties—and foreclosure proceedings—may simply 'shut down' and opt not to participate in the voting process. But while this report makes some very compelling arguments, it's likely that more research is needed to rule out other variables." Neil Garfield, a consumer advocate, former trial attorney, and economist, sees foreclosures impacting the election in a different way. "Elections are all about perceptions, ideology, and manipulation of messages," Garfield said. "If the foreclosure crisis is the same as it is today on election day, Obama will win on this issue—even if he doesn't win the election—because he is correctly perceived as attempting to fix it. Romney will draw some blood, though, on the issue of who understands the mechanics of derivatives and so-called securitization. He probably understands it better than Obama, which is not to say he will fix the problem." Issues at Play Estrada-Correa and Johnson looked at various factors in their study. "Homeowners are more likely to vote than people who do not own their home," they wrote, citing a 1998 study estimating the probability a homeowner will show up to the polls is 10 percent higher than a non-homeowner. Political participation, they say, is also linked to housing tenure. "People with long-time residential stability are more likely to vote than people who have moved more recently or more frequently," the researchers wrote. Income status is not a factor in voting, they added, citing a study that found "homeownership appears to promote political participation 69

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