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among the residents of high- and low-income neighborhoods." According to Estrada-Correa and Johnson, three factors affect the relationship between voting and homeownership: » Homeowners and long-time residents are more likely to have "cleared the institutional hurdle of making and maintaining a valid voter registration." » Voting researchers anticipate homeowners have more stakes in the political system, or "a vested interest in public affairs and the outcomes of elections." gas prices, and economic growth, they said, "also shape assessments of the economy, but unemployment remains one of the most publicized markers of effective economic governance." The Burden-Wichowsky study found "the [voter] turnout gap between employed and unemployed shrinks as state unemployment increases," that is to say, "a sour economic performance, at least in terms of unemployment statistics, invigorates rather than suppresses electoral participation." » Homeownership and residential stability "promote the accumulation of social capital" or connections among individuals. Critics Weigh In New Jersey mortgage banker Richard » Foreclosures, they contend, break down these relationships, and the impact goes beyond just those homeowners subject to foreclosure proceedings. removing invested members of the community as well as exposing others who remain in the neighborhood to economic anxieties," Estrada- Correa and Johnson wrote. "Our results suggest communities affected by foreclosure saw a substantial loss in social capital as residents were forced to relocate after losing their homes." The analysis done by the UC-Riverside "Foreclosure disrupts neighborhoods both by researchers followed a study by political scientists Barry Burden of the University of Wisconsin- Madison and Amber Wichowsky of Marquette University, who looked into "economic hardship and voter turnout," concentrating on the effect of unemployment on voting. "Increases in the unemployment rate are associated with higher not lower levels of voter turnout," Burden and Wichowsky said. They looked specifically into whether incumbent office holders are at risk as a result of an economic downturn—a theory offered by another political scientist, Benjamin Radcliffe. Burden and Wichowsky said they focused on Booth offers a different take. "I was a homeowner during the last real estate crash of 1987 and foreclosure crisis that followed into the early 1990s," he said. "Presidential elections usually have the highest voter turnout vs. the mid-terms and local elections. Those who were expecting a miracle four years ago are dealing with the hangover from the many broken promises, bailouts, and a worsened economic climate. One in particular that stands out in my mind was a woman from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, speaking to a television reporter the day after the 2008 election. She exclaimed, 'I am so happy I no longer have to worry about paying my mortgage.' I often wonder what happened to her," mused Booth, a certified mortgage broker. While acknowledging the impact homes or, if to their perception or facts, [the programs] failed to help them save their homes. Voter turnout indeed will be affected by which candidate is able to effectively use this factor in their campaign and outreach to the electorate, who badly need help or answers to what went wrong." While not disputing the California study, Florida real estate attorney Roy Oppenheim suggests it would be a mistake for foreclosed homeowners to forego voting. "If people don't have actual neighbors to interact with, I can see the likelihood they might be less motivated to vote and less engaged with the political process. When you are surrounded by empty homes and you have absentee banks for neighbors, residents don't have that feeling of community," he said. "But because they are surrounded by foreclosed properties is exactly why they must be engaged in the electoral process. Foreclosure is still the 900-pound gorilla in this election, and how both the president and Mitt Romney address this issue throughout their campaigns will be watched closely by political observers." He added: "On one hand, you have Barack unemployment as a measure of economic hardship because "we expect incumbents to be held accountable for poor job numbers." They noted that "politicians campaign on the issue, the media focus attention on changes in the unemployment rate, and voters generally expect government to do something to address rising job loss." Other economic indicators such as inflation, 70 foreclosure can have, Booth doesn't accept the Estrada-Correa-Johnson conclusion. "The foreclosure crisis has displaced many from their homes," he said. "However, if one has the desire to vote in this election, registering to vote has been made very easy in recent years. For example, if one changes his or her driver's license, most motor vehicle agencies can automatically update voter registration. I disagree that foreclosures depress voter turnout. Voters are more conscious this election year about economic issues, especially since their largest asset, their home, has been impacted." Sampson Linus, trend analyst and territory manager with Ecolab Corporation, is a skeptic. "The data may be accurate; I believe it still remains a factor on a per-person basis," Linus said. "While a lot of foreclosures were a result of bad loans offered in the timeline before this electoral era, the electorate may take a positive stand if the current programs developed either saved or honestly attempted to save their Obama, who had a laissez-faire attitude about the housing problem during the early years of his presidency. His change in direction has yet to pay dividends. But on the other hand, you have Mitt Romney, who has yet to offer any real housing policy at all." Sharga also takes a broader view of the issue through a political analyst's lens. "While the knee-jerk response has often been that the incumbent will suffer in areas with high levels of foreclosure activity, it's unlikely that President Obama will lose California despite the fact that the state has the largest number of homes in foreclosure," Sharga said. "What will be interesting to see," Sharga continued, "is if the problems associated with foreclosures—weak economies, high unemployment, depressed home prices—are enough to prove the difference in some of the swing states in this year's election. Florida, Ohio, and Michigan, for example, all have high levels of foreclosure activity; the candidate who can offer the best potential solution to the ongoing housing woes may get just enough of a lift in those states to make the difference. But in all probability, foreclosure activity isn't likely to be the biggest determinant in most of these states."

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