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MortgagePoint » Your Trusted Source for Mortgage Banking and Servicing News 78 March 2025 J O U R N A L assistance after being defrauded. This variation in experience emphasizes the absence of a uniform procedure for victims to obtain compensation. Age is a significant factor as well. Older Americans have a notable lack of cyber awareness. Older consumers are less aware of the risks when they enter the real estate market. Just 8–9% of buyers under the age of 44 had no prior knowledge of wire fraud before they started their real estate transaction. Among Americans 55 and older, it is double that, at 18% or higher. Compared to other age groups, older consumers have a considerably higher expectation that their title company or lawyer will safeguard them. In conclusion, Americans will even- tually demand change. The necessity for change becomes more evident the more consumers are hurt and affected by wire fraud. Regarding what consumers want from their business providers, the mes- sage is unambiguous. While further ed- ucation is encouraged to protect oneself, many buyers and sellers still hold their banks, title companies, lawyers, and real estate brokers equally accountable for their safety. A TRILLION- DOLLAR IMPACT? HOW NATURAL DISASTER RISK COULD RESHAPE THE U.S. REAL ESTATE MARKET A comprehensive analysis by First Street, published in its 12th National Report, "Property Prices in Peril," provides insight into the observed and projected effects of climate change on the U.S. real estate market. Utilizing peer-reviewed methodologies and macroeconomic modeling, "Proper- ty Prices in Peril" estimates a potential $1.47 trillion reduction in unadjusted real estate value over the next 30 years due to climate-related risks. Drawing on research that examines climate risk awareness, housing market dynamics, climate migration patterns, and demographic and socioeconomic shifts, "Property Prices in Peril" offers a forward-looking analysis of the Housing Price Index (HPI), property valuation trends, and localized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) impacts extending to 2055. According to the study, residential real estate is the bedrock of the U.S. economy, currently valued at $50 trillion and nearly double the country's $27.4 trillion GDP. With nearly two-thirds of U.S. adults as homeowners, homeowner- ship is often the ultimate sign of success for many Americans. Historically, population migration and homeowner- ship trends have shown that areas that combined the cost of home ownership and quality of life have grown much faster than areas with less to offer in these places. These areas have seen increases in severe weather exposure and insurance costs, resulting in a steady increase in the overall cost of homeownership. While the Sun Belt region is the most dramatic example of this phenomenon, insurance markets responding to the increasing awareness of climate risk are materially changing the calculus behind home ownership and the desirability of entire communities across the country. Key Findings: • Climate risk reshaping real estate fundamentals: Climate change is transforming the U.S. housing mar- ket through two powerful indirect forces—soaring insurance costs and shifting consumer preferenc- es—which together are creating a feedback loop where climate risks drive population movements and reshape property values across the nation, fundamentally altering traditional patterns of real estate growth and community develop- ment. • Insurance cost acceleration relative to home appreciation: Insurance costs are rising dramatically faster than mortgage payments. From 2013-2022, insurance as a percentage of mortgage payments more than doubled, rising from 7%-8% to over 20% of mortgage costs. • Anticipated disruptions in Sun Belt growth: Historical population migration to the Sun Belt, which has dominated U.S. population movement for decades, is being fundamentally disrupted by climate change impacts. The three largest Sun Belt states (Texas, Florida, and California) have absorbed over 40% of the nation's $2.8 trillion in natu- ral disaster costs since 1980. • Climate-driven macroeconomic assessments: First Street's Mac- roeconomic Implications Model (FS-MIM) provides a comprehen- sive and novel analytical framework that combines the acute impacts of rising insurance premiums with the chronic effects of changing consumer demand and migration patterns to quantify how climate risks will reshape property values and economic vitality across Amer- ican communities over the next three decades. • Risk-based insurance premium projections: First Street estimates that unrestricted risk-based insur- ance pricing would drive a 29.4% increase in average premiums by 2055—comprising an 18.4% correction for current underpricing and an 11% increase from growing climate risks. • Concentrated premium spikes in coastal metros: The five largest metro areas facing the highest insurance premium increases are Miami (322%), Jacksonville (226%), Tampa (213%), New Orleans (196%), and Sacramento (137%). • Climate migration driving popu- lation redistribution: First Street's climate migration projections predict that more than 55 million Americans